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It's not clear who benefits economically from Thabo Mbeki's Zimbabwe deal
THE Zimbabwe elite deal-making process could achieve another milestone
if Robert Mugabe honours his pledge to form a government of unity.
Even if not genuine democratisation, we must still ask who will win the
economic chimurenga - a liberation battle against inflation, mass
joblessness, widespread shortages and de-industrialisation?
The choices are diverse: a parasitical elite of several thousand
bureaucrats and crony business operators around Mugabe; the productive
business class (what is left of it) around prime minister-designate
Morgan Tsvangirai; domestic and international financiers demanding
austerity; global corporations devoted to resource extraction; the aid
industry; or the povo (masses).
Among the most active representatives of the povo are the Combined
Harare Residents' Association, Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, National
Constitutional Assembly, Women of Zimbabwe Arise, Zimbabwe Congress of
Trade Unions and Zimbabwe National Students' Union.
In February these and other civil society groups made demands for a
genuinely new Zimbabwe through their National People's Convention
Charter, not unlike South Africa's 1955 Freedom Charter.
In addition to political reform and human rights, the People's Charter
spoke of the national economy and social welfare in a unified, unifying way:
The national economy belongs to the people of Zimbabwe and must serve as
a mechanism through which everyone shall be equally guaranteed the
rights to dignity and economic and social justice.
To this end, the charter called for people-centred economic planning and
budgets at national and local government levels that guarantee social
and economic rights, including public programmes to build schools,
hospitals, houses, dams and roads and create jobs and equitable access
to and distribution of national resources for the benefit of all
Zimbabweans.
This includes the most controversial issue of all: equitable, open and
fair redistribution of land from the few to the many.
Odious debt
Crucially, the charter also demanded the right of the people of Zimbabwe
to refuse repayment of any odious debt accrued by a dictatorial
government, which is in the range of $5 billion (R41 billion).
Repaying Mugabe's debt would cancel out other charter demands: free and
quality public health care, including free drugs, treatment, care and
support for those living with HIV and Aids; a living pension and social
security allowances; decent work, employment and the right to earn a
living; affordable, quality and decent public-funded transport; food
security and the availability of basic commodities at affordable prices,
where necessary, to ensure universal access; free and quality public
education from creche to college and university levels; decent and
affordable public-funded housing; and fair labour standards.
These are worthy goals for a society brutally oppressed, not only by
ongoing torture and state violence, but also indirectly through economic
deprivation, especially debasement of the currency on a scale
unprecedented in human history.
But to slash inflation - estimated at more than 20 million percent - in
the manner now contemplated by elites, would mean denial of all these
social objectives, as social spending would face deep cuts.
An international bail-out is not on the cards, especially as the US
financial crisis spreads, and the people of Zimbabwe can instead expect
an austerity programme from institutions such as the International
Monetary Fund, World Bank, UN Development Programme and donor governments.
Zim deserves assistance, declared a Herald newspaper editorial last
week, reflecting official Zanu-PF myopia: It is encouraging that there
have already been positive indications from the IMF, showing its
willingness to open discussions with Zimbabwean leaders on the
possibility of arranging a financial rescue package for the country.
The question then arises: can the economy's weaknesses be turned into
potential strengths? An optimistic answer was provided in 1999 by,
surprisingly, the UNDP's Zimbabwe Human Development Report, co-published
by the Zimbabwe Institute for Development Studies and Poverty Reduction
Forum.
While recognising Ian Smith's illegitimacy, that report applauded the
heritage left by a regime that built itself up on a largely internally
orientated economy with minimal dependence on the outside world.
The people of Zimbabwe can assert their primacy and with sober and
deliberate intervention in national matters bring back the state and
economy to serving first and foremost the interests of the people based
on people's efforts and resources.
But thanks to dramatic ideological changes in New York, last week the
UNDP articulated the neo-liberal (free market) agenda in its 250-page
study, Comprehensive Economic Recovery in Zimbabwe:
Establish an independent and orthodox central bank.
Remove interest rate controls and exchange-rate controls.
Remove capital controls on private individuals.
Reach agreement to clear outstanding arrears with Bretton Woods Institutions and the Paris Club
Ensure compliance with the tariff structure in line with commitments to the World Trade Organisation.
Remove restrictions to participation of foreign banks
Design strategies for Privatisation/restructuring; and
Design cost-recovery and maintenance strategies for public infrastructure and services ministries.
Aside from the UNDP and Bretton Woods Institutions, the most dangerous
of Harare's external advisers is the Cato Institute, which is based in
Washington.
Confidence
Remarkably, this libertarian think-tank seemed to have won the
confidence of Tsvangirai, providing comments on MDC economic policy six
months before civil society even had a chance to look at it.
One Cato idea doing the rounds is to phase out the Zim dollar and shift
monetary policy control to the central bank, printers of 2008's two
weakest major currencies, the US dollar and the rand.
This would prevent any Harare government from setting interest rates,
controlling financial inflows/outflows, or directing credit to
re-industrialisation strategies.
The money required to return Zimbabwe to one of the world's most
balanced economies (it had the third highest industrialisation/gross
domestic product ratio in 1980) may appear scarce at present.
But internal resources are not negligible, if re-invested properly.
But thanks to financial liberalisation during the 1990s, Zimbabwe became
Africa's third worst case of capital flight in relative terms, suffering
a loss of R196 billion - inflation-adjusted - from 1978 to 2004,
according to University of Massachusetts economists Leonce Ndikumana and
James Boyce.
That figure is five times Zimbabwe's external debt and in Africa is
exceeded only by Nigeria and Angola.
Properly policed exchange controls and a ban on imported luxury goods
would go a long way to reversing the current account deficit.
Yet if Thabo Mbeki's eviction gives many poor South Africans hope
(however much in vain that may be), Zimbabweans should be aware that
Jacob Zuma this week renewed Mbeki's deal-making mandate: He must continue.
Foreign minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma once said: We will never
criticise Zimbabwe, and likewise she retains her post in Kgalema
Motlanthe's administration.
With Mbeki's connivance, Mugabe seeks power-snaring, not power-sharing.
But if the political crisis associated with exhausted hypernationalism
is band-aided again in coming days, the more profound crisis looming is
neo-liberalism, for which a revitalised civil society and its People' s
Charter appear to be the only antidote.
# Patrick Bond coauthored Zimbabwe's Plunge for UKZN Press and directs
the UKZN Centre for Civil Society.
Umbuso wokubambisana noma umbuso wendlovuyangena?
Akucaci kahle ukuthi ubani ozozuza ngesinqumo sezomnotho esenziwa nguThabo Mbeki ngeZimbabwe.
NguPatrick Bond
Umhumushi uFaith ka-Manzi
Uma uRobert Mugabe engasihlonipha isinqumo esenziwe ngabadla izambane likapondo eZimbabwe kungabakhona umehluko omkhulu kuhulumeni wekuhlanganyela.
Noma kungeyena uhulumeni wentando yeningi ngokupheleleyo, kufanele sizibuze ukuthi ubani oyakuphumelela kwezomnotho – impi yenkululeko emelene nokwehla komnotho, ukusweleka kwemisebenzi, ukungabikhona kwezidingo ezibalulekile?
Ukukhetha kuhlukene kakhulu: abadla izambane likapondo abangenalusizo abayizinkulungwane kanye nabahwebi abangathembekile abazungeze uMugabe; noma abakhiqizi (labo abambalwa abasekhona) abazungeze undunankulu uMorgan Tsvangirai;noma abatshali bezimali bomhlaba kanye nabasekhaya; noma izinkampani zomhlaba ezizimisele ngokuthatha umnotho waseZimbabwe; laba abeza nezimali zosizo; noma izakhamuzi.
Kulaba abamele izakhamizi kubalwa iCombined Harare Residents Association, Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, National Constitutional Assembly, Women of Zimbabwe Arise, Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions kanye neZimbabwe Nationals Students Union.
NgoFebruwari lezizinhlangano kanye nezinye zemiphakathi zalwela iZimbabwe entsha ngokweqiniso ngezazikubhale phansi kwiNational People’s Convetion Charter, hayi njenge Freedom Charter yaseNingizimu Afrika yangonyaka ka1955.
Ngaphezu kwenguquko kwezombusazwe kanye namalungelo abantu, iPeople’s Charter yakhuluma komnotho kazwelonke kanye nezenhlalakahle ngendlela yokuhlanganyela, ehlanganisayo:
Umnotho wezwelonke owabantu baseZimbabwe futhi kufanele ube yindlela ezoqinisekisa ukuthi wonke umuntu unamalungelo okuhlonishwa, omnotho kanye nobulungiswa kwezenhlalakahle.
Kuze kube manje, icharter imemezela umnotho ohlanganyelwa abantu lapho ukuhlelwa kwezimali zezwe kuhulumeni wezwe kanye nabasekhaya kuqinisekisa amalungelo ezenhlalakahle kanye nawomnotho, okumbandakanywa izinhlelo zokwakha izikole, izibhedlela, amadamu kanye nemigwaqo kokudalwa kwamathuba emisebenzi nalapho futhi izidingogqangi zezwe zizohlanganyelwa abantu bonke baseZimbabwe.
Lokhu kufaka phakathi lokhu okunenkinga kakhulu: ukusabalaliswa ngokulinganwa komhlaba uthatha kwabambalwa ube ngowabobonke abantu.
Isikweletu Esimbi
Okubalulekile futhi, icharter yalwela ilungelo labantu baseZimbabwe ukuthi banqabe ukukhokhela izikweletu ezidalwe nguhulumeni okade ebusa ngendlovuyangena, isikweletu esibalelwa kumabhiliyoni amahlanu amadola (R41 billion).
Ukukhokhela isikweletu sikaMugabe kuyonciphisa amathuba ezinye izidingo zecharter ukuthi zingafezeki: ezempilo ezisenzingeni futhi zamahala, okubalwa imithi yamahala, ukuhlolwa, ukunakekelwa kanye nokuxhaswa kwalabo baphila negciwane lengculaza, impesheni esezingeni, imisebenzi esezingeni, ukuqashwa, nelungelo lokuholela ukuziphilisa; ezokuthutha ezisezingeni futhi ezingabizi kakhulu; ukuqiniseka ngokuba khona kokudla; uma kungenzek kuqinisekiswe ngemfundo esezingeni yamahala kusukela kojahidada kuya ezikhungweni zemfundo ephakeme; izindawo zokuhlala ezisezingeni futhi ezingakhokheleka; kanye nezindlela ezinobulungiswa zokusebenza.
Lena imigomo emihle efun wa ngumphakathi obicindezelekile, hayi kuphela-nje yisihluku nodlame luqhubekayo lwenziwa uhulumeni, kodwa ngokucindezelwa kwezomnotho, ikakhulukazi ngokwehla kwemali yakhona ngendlela engakaze ibonwe emhlabeni wonke.
Kodwa ukulwa nokwehla kwemali – okubalelwa kumaphesenti ayizigidi ezingamashumi amabili – ngendlela ekubuka ngayo abadla izambane likapondo, kungachaza ukuvimbela zonke lezizidingo zomphakathi, ngoba kungancipha izimali ekufanele zifukule umphakathi.
Ukusizwa ngumhlaba okuyona into ebhekiwe, ikakhulukazi njengoba izinkinga zezimali zaseMelika ziya ngokubhebhetheka, abantu baseZimbabwe bangabhekana nokuswela kakhulu ezinhlelweni zezinhlangano ezifana noInternational Monetary Fund, World Bank, UN Development Programme kanye namazwe anikelayo.
IZimbabwe iyaludinga usizo, kusho iphephandaba iHerald ngesonto elidlule, iveza ukucabanga okungenagqondo kwesikhulu seZanu-PF: ‘Kuyasikhuthaza ukuthi sekunokuxhumana okungaba nemiphumela emihle kanye neIMF,okukhombisa ukuzimisela kwabo ukuba nezingxoxo ezivulelekile kanye nabaholi baseZimbabwe lapho kungazanywa khona ukuxhaswa kwezwe ngezimali.”
Umbuzo ovukayo ilona: kungenzeka ubuthakathaka bomnotho bunikwe amandla? Impendulo eletha ithemba yeza ngo1999, ilethwa iUNDP’s Zimbabwe Human Development Report, eyashicilelwa kanye neZimbabwe Institute for Development Studies kanye nePoverty Reduction Forum.
Noma lombhalo wakubheka ukubusa kuka-Ian Smith njengokwakungekho emthethweni, lombiko washayela ihlombe ifa elalishiywe umbuso umnotho wawo owawukhuliswe kakhulu imikhiqizo yangaphakathi nobudlelwane obuncane namazwe angaphandle.
Abantu baseZimbabwe bangakuqinisekisa ngokuzethemba ukuzibusa kwabo ngokuhlanganyela ezindabeni zezwe babuyise uhulumeni nomnotho ozonakekela izidingo zabantu futhi ulawulwe yimizamo yabo kanye nezidingongqangi.
Kodwa sekungabongwa ukushintsha ngokwethusayo ngendlela yokubusa eNew York, iUNDP ibhale uhlelo lwezomnotho labadla izambane likapondo lezomakethe ezivulelekile, iComprehensive Economic Recovery in Zimbabwe:
Ukuqala ibhange elizimele.
Ukususa ukulawulwa kwenzuzo uma kushintshwa izimali.
Ukususa ukulawulwa kwezimali ngabazimeleyo.
Ukufika esivumelwaneni sokucisha izikweletu neBretton Woods Institutions kanye neParis Club.
Ukuqinisekisa ukuthi kuhanjiswana nemigomo yokukhokha kwiWorld Trade Organisation.
Ukususa imigomo evimbela ukuhlanganyela namabhange angaphandle.
Ukwenza izinhlelo zokuhweba zangasese/nokuvuselela; kanye
Ukwenza izindlela zokubuyisa izimali kanye nokusimamisa izindawo ezisetshenziswa umphakathi kanye neminyago kahulumeni esiza umphakathi.
Ngaphandle-nje kweUNDP kanye Bretton Woods Institutions, ababonisi baseHarare abayingozi kakhulu abaqhamuka ngaphandle abeCato Institute, ezinze eWashington.
Ukuthenjwa
Ngeshwa, lenhlangano esimame kwezabadla izambane likapondo isithole ukuthenjwa uTsvangirai, imnika imibono ngemithetho yezomnotho yeMDC izinyanga eziyisithupha ngaphambi ngokuba umphakathi uyibone.
Omunye umqondo weCato ojikelezayo ukuthi kuqedwe idola laseZimbabwe besekulawulwa imigomo yezezimali ebhange elingujikelele, bese kushicelelwa imali ebuthakathakakakhulu njengamanje, idola laseMelika kanye nerandi.
Lokhu kuyovimbela uhulumeni waseHarare ukuthi abeke imigomo yenzuzo, ukulawula imali engenayo nephumayo, noma ukubhekisa imali yembolekiso kwizinhlelo zokuqala kabusha ukukhiqiza.
Imali edingekayo ukuze kubuyiselwe iZimbabwe esimweni sokuba izwe elinomnotho osimamile emhlabeni wonke ibukeka ingekho njengamanje.
Kodwa-ke izidingogqangi zangaphakathi zingasiza, uma kutshalwe kuzo imali kabusha ngokuqikelela.
Kodwa kungabongwa ukuvuleleka kwezezimali ngeminyaka yama1990, iZimbabwe yaba izwe lesithathu laseAfrika elalibalekelwa imali, yalahlekelwa uR196 wezigidigidi zamarandi kusukela ngonyaka ka1978 kuya ku2004, njengokusho koSomnotho basesikhungweni semfundo ephakeme yaseMassachusetts uLeonce Ndukumana kanye noJames Boyce.
Lesisikweletu seZimbabwe namazwe angaphandle isoan esikhulu kakhulu eAfrica ngaphandle-nje kweNigeria neAngola.
Uma kungase kulawulwe ngokuqikelela ukushintshwa kwezimali kanye nokungavunyelwa kwezimpahla ezivela ngaphandle kungenza lesisikweletu sisheshe sikhokheke.
Kodwa umangabe ukususwa kukaThabo Mbeki esihlalweni sobumongameli sinika ithemba kubantu abaningi abahluphekayo eNingizimu Afrika (noma lokhu kuyiphupho nje), abantu baseZimbabwe kufanele bakhumbule ukuthi uJacob Zuma uthe uMbeki angaqhubeka nozingxoxo zombusazwe waseZimbabwe.
Ungqongqoshe wezangaphandle uNkosazana Dlamini-Zuma wathi ngelinye ilanga: “Asisoze sayigxeka iZimbabwe,” futhi-ke usaqhubeka nesikhundla sakhe kuhulemeni kaKgalema Motlanthe.
Ngokungenelela kukaMbeki, uMugabe ufuna ukuphatha yena hayi ukubambisana.
Kodwa uma isimo esishubile sezombusazwe sibandakanywa ukukhathal kokuvukelwa usinga kulezizinsuku ezizayo, isimo esishubile kakhulu esizayo esemigomo yabadla izambane likapondo.
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